Erwartungsbildung und Prognose Ergebnisse einer experimentellen Studie
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17713/ajs.v29i1.497Abstract
Die visuell gestützte Extrapolation ist ein beson-ders häufig angewendetes Verfahren, das praktisch für jede graphisch dargestellte Zeitreihe Verwendung finden kann. Folgt die Zeitreihe keinem leicht erkennbaren, strengen Bildungsgesetz, weichen die individuellen Gestaltsausdeutungen in der Regel sehr voneinander ab, jedoch im Durchschnitt mitteln sich singulär viele Ausdeutungen heraus. Demgegenüber lassen sich einige wenige wesentliche Merkmale ausndig machen, die im vorliegenden Beitrag die Grundlage eines apriori Erklärungsmodells für Kollektivprognosen bilden. Die Überprüfung dieses Modellsim Rahmen einer Reihe von Experimenten liefert bemerkenswerte Ergebnisse.
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