Ist Österreich voll in die DM-Zone integriert? Eine ökonometrische Analyse
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17713/ajs.v25i2.555Abstract
Seit Anfang der achtziger Jahre betreibt Österreich eine enge Anbindung seiner Währung an die DM, um bei der Inflationsbekämpfung von der Reputation der Deutschen Bundesbank zu profitieren. Als Ergebnis dieser Hartwährungspolitik wird in der Literatur angenommen, daß die österreichische Wirtschaft voll in die erweiterte DM-Zone integriert sei. Die vorliegende Arbeit konfrontiert diese Hypothese mit Daten. Insbesondereüberprüft sie die deutsche Dominanzhypothese anhand von langfristigen Zinssätzen mit Kointegrations- und Granger-Kausalitätstests im vektorautoregressiven Modell. Hiernach werden die österreichischen Zinssätze nicht nur von den deutschen, sondern auch von den US-Zinssätzen beeinflußt. Außerdem kann entgegen der Erwartung keine Kointegrationsbeziehung gefunden werden. Die österreichische Währung ist damit (noch)
nicht vollständig in die DM-Zone integriert.
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